Making it to the Olympics is to commit to years of training with a long-shot payoff. How athletes think about this can teach us how to think about our careers.
When we were little kids my brother and I took a tumbling for tots class. One day the coach approached my mother saying that he saw potential in my 3-year-old brother; he wanted to train him for the Olympic gymnastics team. My mother said no.
To make it to the Olympics takes extended, dedicated practice. Tens of hours per week, for years on end. Even more so in a very competitive sport like gymnastics where there are literally millions of others in the sport. To make the team requires sacrificing other interests; less time for friends (outside the sport), video games, relaxing, other hobbies, and even a normal childhood.
At age 3, or 6, or even 12, it’s not guaranteed you’re going to make the team. Even if you make the team, world competition is fierce, and you may not win. That assumes you get to compete. There could be a cancellation (1940 and 1944), a boycott by your country (the US did not send a team to the 1980 games, and did USSR countries in 1984), rescheduling (2020 games were postponed a year due to covid), or other reasons. In the weeks to days to hours before the competition life can happen. You could be in a car accident, slip on the floor and pull a muscle, or have an emotional blow, like a death in the family, any of which can throw you off your game. The 2014 winter Olympics in Sochi were notorious for poor hotel conditions. As an athlete who has trained her or his whole life for this moment, where you need to be 100%, such poor conditions can keep you from the level of perfection needed. (And for women, pregnancy has a massive impact in most sports.)
All this is to say that to be in the Olympics is to dedicate a significant portion of your life to something where there are many factors, including ones that can be outside your control. With startups companies we often look at success stories like Amazon and Facebook; we talk far less about the ones that failed. Likewise, we celebrate winners like Carl Lewis and Simone Biles (both incredible athletes worthy of celebration), but don’t talk about Olympians who came in 18th in their event.
Of course, if you are an Olympian this is not the only competition. You’ll have national championships and world championships in your sport. The same risks apply, but these events happen annually, so having one year that was off was less impactful. Still, a longer-term injury or just someone better coming along can curtail your dreams.
“I mean this has been my whole life. I’ve literally put my entire life into this.” – Brody Malone, 2024 US Men’s Gymnastics Team
How does this relate to careers? Most people think of their career as a continuous flow, you show up to work, and get compensated with your paycheck. Some jobs, however, have discontinuous points.
Startups are a well-known example. A founder can struggle for years and then win gold, er, win a pile of gold, when he exits, or he could become just another also-ran founder no one remembers. Faculty positions are similar. A college may hire for multiple junior faculty roles knowing that not all of them will get tenure. They work for years to do research and publish (and at world class universities, it is as intense as training for the Olympics), only to learn years later if their labors come to fruition. Lawyers follow a similar path to make partner at the firm, and similar long-term payouts can be found in other fields.
This is not to say it’s completely unknown. Years before making the Olympics team you have some sense of how well you compare to others in your field. Lawyers and junior faculty should have some feedback on how they are doing (although it’s not always as transparent as it should be). Founders may have some early indication of interest in their venture. But there is a long lag from effort to payout in all cases, far longer than those who just show up for a paycheck week after week.
With more common jobs, you can put in years of effort hoping for a promotion. Even if you do everything right and are on track, anything from a new manager, new strategy, new co-workers, or recession could derail those plans. You can’t always predict the outcome at the outset.
“I worked my entire life and then it comes down to forty-five seconds.” – Stephen Nedoroscik, 2024 US Men’s Gymnastics Team
None of this is to say don’t try. We should try for that promotion. Founders and aspiring law firm partners don't succeed without taking the chance. And yes, if you love that sport, training to become an Olympian. (For the record, in my 20s I started competitive ballroom dancing and spent significant time and training to become one the top ballroom dancers in the country, and I’ve done plenty of startups, so I’ve certainly taken those “risks.”) I’m not suggesting that you should not take chances, even long shots, or those where some of the outcome can be outside of your control; but when you do, make certain you understand the risks, so you go in with your eyes open.
Equally important is the path. Lots of people happily play sports without playing them at a world class level. Many people love their careers without needing to climb the corporate ladder, or even if they want to, still being happy with their career without becoming CEO. If you’re optimizing for the big payout, just understand the risks. If you enjoy the work to get there, the payoff matrix often has a higher chance of success.
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